In October 2021, the U.S. FDA issued a Marketing Denial Order (MDO) to almost 90% of flavored e-cigarette companies, that is, they cannot be marketed. And e-cigarette companies including JUL and BAT. Njoy have neither passed nor failed, and are currently in a state of deferred approval (except for the BAT-model Vuse solo to obtain legal status).
Thinking about it in reverse, it can be understood that since more than 90% of other e-cigarette companies cannot be listed for sale, it has virtually freed up more market space for companies such as JUL, BAT, Njoy, etc. What is the market space freed up? Meaning? This paragraph is the heart of this article. Therefore, it is an invisible fait accompli that the FDA's delay in reviewing other companies' MDOs and Juul, BAT and other companies actually protects the sales environment of Juul, BAT and other companies. This means that there are more monks and less porridge, and when consumers have no more choices, they can only choose from the existing ones, which will obviously increase the sales share of these few. The benefits to Smol are self-evident.
Although this fait accompli is not the original intention of the FDA, and the current sales of Jul, BAT and other companies in the United States are theoretically illegal. However, because this illegality is caused by the FDA's delay in reviewing, there is a high probability that it will not be held accountable.
Well, in fact, after a few months, the formal approval of these companies is just a formality, and it only gives an official name, which has little impact on their sales in the United States. Of course, it will obviously be better with legal name protection.
The so-called waiting for the FDA's review results of other companies is about a few points. One is to worry about the most unexpected situation, that is, the FDA will issue a marketing refusal order to all the remaining e-cigarette companies. MDO (if BAT is rejected, other companies are almost likely to pass. Very low, so all were rejected); Second, all flavored cigarettes and menthol cigarettes were rejected, which is more likely, and the company has already prepared.
If all are rejected (except for a BAT product that has already passed), it is equivalent to kicking IQOS out of the United States (after the end of November 2021, IQOS cannot be sold in the United States), and then kicking out a number of electronic cigarettes, then all e-cigarettes with All new types of tobacco with harm reduction effect are kicked out of the United States, when will they encounter greater social problems and public pressure?
So, what is the probability of this happening? What if the probability is small?